Catch 22's first look at the election...

This is a high level summary of campaign results in ridings identified by the Catch 22 campaign. Over the coming weekend, we'll publish an editorial. Then in a few weeks we'll put out a more detailed look at our campaign - strengths and weaknesses, what worked and what didn't etc. Once that is done, the campaign will be wrapped up.

Obviously, we did not get the overall results we were looking for. With less than a 2% increase in the popular vote, Harper was successful at boosting his seat count by 25 and forming a "majority" with the support of less than 40% of voters.

Here are a few stats from our campaign.

Number of ridings on Catch 22 list - 60

Number of first place finishes for opposition in C22 identified ridings - 15 (including 2 "too close to call ridings" won by opposition)

Number of Conservatives defeated from Catch 22 list - 4 (Surrey North, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Beauport-Limiloi, Pontiac)
Number of opposition ridings successfully defended - 11 (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Welland, Malpeque, Burnaby-Douglas, New Westminister-Coquitlam, Edmonton-Strathcona, London Fanshawe, Western Arctic, Guelph, Kingston and the Islands, Random-Burin-St. Georges)

Number of second place finishes - 34

Number of third place finishes for Catch 22 candidates - 8 (Huron Bruce, Miramichi, Fredericton, Edmonton Centre, Brant, St. John, Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup)

Number of "too close to call" ridings won by the Conservatives - 3 (Essex, Kenora, Nunavut)

Number of ridings where recommendations were flat out wrong - 2 (Newton North Delta where the C22 recommended Liberal incumbent (31.5) was defeated by the NDP (33.4%) with Con right behind (31.3%). Both the Cons and NDP were within 10% of the Lib incumbent in 2008. Catch 22 should have stayed out of this one. In Montmagny-L'Islet— Kamouraska—Rivière-du Loup - the NDP beat the the Con by just 9 votes. We recommended the Bloc candidate to defeat the Con. after the Cons took it from the Bloc in a 2009 by-election. More on Quebec in the detailed report.

Sincerely

Catch 22 team

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Comment by Anne Schmitz on May 4, 2011 at 5:06pm: Very important that you raised this issue. It is the next big worry for Ontario. Labour unions are much better at seeing this threat than at the Fed level, so maybe we will have some help this time

Comment by Lorena (Leni) Spooner on May 4, 2011 at 10:07am: Within hours of the Federal Results Conservative spokespersons in Ontario were promising a replica of the Harper Campaign here in Ontario. Ontario conservatives are poised to gain power in Ontario's upcoming election and if elected will be able to help push Harper's Agenda via Provincial Federal Negotiations....Is there no role for us (as Catch 22) to play to avoid this outcome? Do we have to no role to play in damage control over he next 4 years?

Comment by CK Twight on May 4, 2011 at 9:47am: I heard on CJAD this morning that Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-RDL will be undergoing a judicial recount as Con incumbent Bernard Genereux only beat the NDP candidate by 5 votes. Will keep you posted

Comment by Laurie Cartman on May 4, 2011 at 9:24am: Don't give up gang...we WILL have another election in the future and we can work towards that one. It might be a long wait..but change can happen. I am just as disappointed as you that we didn't get Harper out..I just don't understand it, but alas. We really need a change in our voting system..conservatives winning an election with less then 40% of the voters is a sad state of affairs. Please keep up the good work, we need you.