Catch 22's target ridings are those where voters have the best chance of defeating the Conservative incumbent in the next election. We selected these ridings principally on the basis of the margin of victory in the 2008 election. The larger the margin, the more difficult it would likely be to win. However, every riding will require hard work in getting our message out. There are no easy victories here. We aimed at a 10% or less margin between the 1st and 2nd place finishers. Here are the other criteria that we considered:

• whether there was a clear second place finisher in the 2008 election
• the riding history (e.g. whether it is a swing riding)
• whether the incumbent is in cabinet
• whether co-operation among political parties is required to win
• the proximity to volunteers in other electoral districts
• the proximity to colleges and universities
• the geographical location (we tried to choose at least 1 riding in each province and territory)

Given both limited resources and the way the voting system works, success depends on our ability to keep the focus on races where relatively small changes in voting patterns can, and often do, determine the final outcome. The fate of politicians, prime ministers and governments often rests in the hands of a very small number of voters in key ridings. Vote splitting can make 'em or break 'em. 

Other Ridings

Some ridings with larger margins of victory have been added to the list over the past year. Here are some criteria considered for these additional ridings:

• whether there was a fairly clear second place finisher in the 2008 election
• whether the incumbent is in cabinet
• the vote percentage the incumbent received in 2008 (less than 50% is almost obligatory)
• the margin between the 1st and 2nd place finishers in 2008 (less than 20% is preferable)
• whether co-operation among political parties is required to win
• the proximity to volunteers in other electoral districts
• the proximity to colleges and universities

 

Vulnerable Opposition Ridings

The Conservative election machine is targeting a number of opposition-held ridings. In February 2011, we added our first such riding - Edmonton-Strathcona - the only opposition-held riding in all of Alberta, currently held by the NDP's Linda Duncan.  The Conservatives do not like having an island of orange in a sea of blue. Where there is no vacancy, we will be endorsing the incumbent. The criteria are simple:

• the riding must have been won by 5% or less with the Conservative coming in second place