Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Andrew Smith on April 5, 2011 at 7:57pm

Hello Nicoholas,
What is it about the targeting that has caused you to comment on this? Are you upset that Catch 22 are spending time on this?

From what I can tell, the ridings were chosen based on the % of vote that each candidate received in 2008. If the NDP and Greens had voted Liberal, Bell would have won. Saxton won by fewer than 3000 votes with an extremely low voter turnout.

It is all about getting the Liberal vote out. As is the case in much of the country, the Conservatives have a base that votes, but they have difficulty increasing this base.

If Taleeb can mobilize the vote and sway NDP and Greens, there is a realistic possibility of defeating Saxton.

There are indeed signs up for the Liberals. They are all over North Van. Please don't vote based on the size of the sign.

Permalink Reply by c p on April 5, 2011 at 8:05pm

DemocraticSPACE website has North Vancouver riding on its 50 RIDINGS TO WATCH

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/2011/?w=12

4. BC North Vancouver
A perennial Conservative-Liberal battle where Andrew Saxton defeated incumbent Don Bell by over 5 points last time; the edge goes to the Conservatives again here.

 

2004 and 2006 it went Liberal (Don Bell) but 2008 to Conservative Andrew Saxton .. as another member of this group notes apparently Don Bell couldn't finish 2008 campaign due to illness which may have contributed to  why it flipped to CPC/Saxton.

 

Saxton's family had a profile in this riding but he was 'unknown' until he ran and won in 2008 .. the new 2011 Liberal candidate Taleeb Noormohamed has some profile as former VANOC vice-president.

 

Frankly, i think Liberals should campaign on  Saxton's vote against oil tanker ban and his apparent role(s) in hiding client's money in Swiss bank accounts (what he did isn't necessarily illegal but certainly not in the spirit of what we should expect of elected officials)

 

Can't speak to presence of Liberal campaign in North Vancouver .. anyone else?

 

However, past election results show that Liberals can get the vote, and that NDP and Greens also hold not insignificant votes that if persuaded could be lent to strategically support the Liberal candidate in North Vancouver.  Note that there is good potential for Greens to swap votes with Liberals eg Liberals in SGI vote for Elizabeth May in return for Greens in North Vancouver voting for Taleeb Noormohamed!

 

Candidate	Party	Vote Count	Vote Share
Don Bell		25357	42.35%
Cindy Silver		22021	36.78%
Sherry Shaghaghi		7903	13.2%
Jim Stephenson		4483	7.49%
Michael Hill		112	0.19%

NORTH VANCOUVER
2004 RESULTS

Candidate	Party	Vote Count	Vote Share
Don H. Bell		22619	40.03%
Ted White		20548	36.36%
John Nelson		8967	15.87%
Peggy Stortz		4114	7.28%
Andres Esteban Barker		181	0.32%
Michael Hill		77	0.14%

Permalink Reply by Catch 22 on April 5, 2011 at 8:21pm

Let's also keep in mind that voter turnout, particularly for the Liberals, dropped in 2008. Those Liberals, for whatever reason, could have made the difference in a number of ridings. Every vote counts. Catch 22 has never suggested that any riding will be easy. A number of factors need to come together but overcoming vote-splitting is one key factor that shouldn't be discounted. Motivating people who don't usually vote can be another.

Permalink Reply by Nicholas Ellan on April 5, 2011 at 11:01pm

Thanks for the thoughful replies.    Sounds like a good challenge, Ron.   I will just add that 308's current projections for 154 Tory seats does NOT include this one - they have it going to the Liberals by 6 points.   Scary stuff.

Permalink Reply by SW on April 16, 2011 at 12:23am

As much as I hate to vote strategically, there's never been a better time to do it -- absolutely essential!

Permalink Reply by Terry Hilton on April 20, 2011 at 12:01pm

As a North Vancouver resident I strongly agree with targeting of this riding. Historically means nothing. Don Bell has nothing to do with this election. I would not normally vote Liberal but I will to defeat the Conservative. This riding has a large coastline. A private members bill introduced was passed in the house to prohibit oil tanker traffic in certain BC coastal waters. The vote passed 1st reading and won in the house 143 to 138. Every Conservative member including Mr. Saxon voted against this bill. This is despite a majority of BC voters supporting this bill. The support came from fishery industries, tourism industries and many BC voters conservative or otherwise. Despite the majority of BC voters BC conservative MPs also voted against it. Harper promised in the past he would not make patronage Senate appointments and in fact promised Senate reform. He lied. He has done the same thing appointing Conservative Senators. He said just days ago he planned to use the Senate to defeat the bill. His record of contempt and lies shows he can't be trusted. Like I said historically means nothing. I and many others are working to take the seat away from the Conservatives and I am proud as a long time North Vancouver resident to do it.

Permalink Reply by Cindy Lee on May 2, 2011 at 12:52am

Hey Terry... last time I saw you was in Smithers! (Ah... the music). I too believe targeting this riding is appropriate. It is winnable, & the right thing to do.

Permalink Reply by Cindy Lee on May 2, 2011 at 12:48am

The Liberal candidate for North Vancouver is anything but an "unknown". The riding is important enough that both Bob Rae & Michael Ignatieff held town halls here - over 1000 attended the one for Ignatieff and people had to be turned away at the door. Taleeb Noormohamed stands a great chance of defeating Saxton. Saxton is a weasel. Noormohamed is a brilliant young man who is refreshing & intelligent.

Permalink Reply by Terry Hilton on May 2, 2011 at 2:36am

yep I knocked on doors for the liberals the last 2 days lol. I am a 30 year NDP guy. But I live in this riding and Saxton is for sure a weasel. I met Taleeb yesterday. The complete opposite of Saxton. Are you living in North Van Cindy?

Permalink Reply by Nicholas Ellan on May 2, 2011 at 3:45am

After meeting Taleeb I am definitely voting for him.  He was an inspiring presence at the All Candidate's Meeting and knew his stuff, took down everyone of Saxton's talking points without breaking a sweat.