There is only one opposition candidate that makes sense to support. Elizabeth May is running neck and neck with Gary Lunn. To support either the Libs or NDP in this riding is to help ensure a victory for Gary Lunn and isn't that what we are trying to avoid. In other ridings the Lib or NDP is the logical choice because of past electoral history etc. Elizabeth May chose this riding because it was identified as the riding with the greatest amount of support for environmental issues and polls in the riding show Ms May is in the best position of the opposition candidates to unseat this particular Conservative candidate.
One of the problems was that greenpartystrategies never made the original poll results available to the public. Their analysis didn't make a lot of sense to me either.
in 2008 Oracle Poll had Elizabeth May at 29% in Central Nova, where she wound up getting 32%, so they weren't that far off then. I thought they did some polling during the London North Centre by-election as well, but not certain about that.
Pat, you do notice that, as I pointed out, the fudged document does not make clear which poll it is "correcting"? Abuse of any statistical document can be achieved by a variety of means, and I suppose one might or might not hold the original authors responsible to see that they are not abused. The reason I specified the names of the firms that implemented the different polls, was to make clear that competing firms have basically agreed on their results. If you wish to look up the Nanos poll of November '09, you would find that, while the three polls we've mentioned here agree only in general terms, they present a progression from Cons leading Greens by 10 points in November 09, to leading greens by 2 points in August '10, to trailing Greens today. The other two parties were trailing all the way.
You do need to ask yourself, whether three polls in general agreement, plus one more that was in agreement, but was rejected and hidden by the agency that had commissioned it, doesn't offer a fairly consistent trend.
We all do the best we can with the information available to us. If this is not sufficient, I suppose we could watch and wait as the results come in on May 2. Then we will surely know what we should have done. It will be a little late for my taste though.
how about joining with the mayday walk from saanich to the legislature http://salmonaresacred.org/blog/mayday
with overnight vigil and then vote together - i'm in vi north, we have our own fish to fry up here so i won't be there with you, will definitely fly the salmon flag.
Elizabeth May's biggest challenge is Gary Lunn's entrenched support in Saanichton and Sidney where she needs to focus. Seniors will respond to her campaign for bringing civility to the House of Commons and while her outsider status may be her achilles heel, word on the ground is that her experience and status as party leader will compensate. Lib and NDP candidates are credible but inexperienced and Elizabeth has already made first person contact with more voters in 18 months than Lunn has in 14 years.
Harper is very worried and he should be, this riding's vote will be person not party. After a lifetime of voting NDP based on policy, I will be voting for Elizabeth May -other NDP voters will be doing the same under cover. Watch for dirty tricks here, where CON bully tactics will play right into her hands. Btw, to assuage my socialist guilt, I examined Green Party policy and the NDP-generated rumours of libertarian tendencies are not to found anywhere.
It's too bad that good candidates must go after the same turf because of an antiquated electoral system, just as site like this one exist because of it. Sighing about vote-splitting seems reasonable. It is a drag, isn't it. I liked that you did not accuse. Accusing one or another party of vote-splitting is to deny the principles of our parliamentary democracy. What is needed is electoral reform to some form of proportional representation. There are several ways to do this.
I have been waiting for Jack Layton to bring out this discussion and have been disappointed. The Liberals seem only to have nightmares about it. Elizabeth and the Green Party is not afraid to mention it and to champion it clearly. Without proportional representation, accusations and/or sighs regarding vote-splitting are expressions of frustration. I want my new MP, whoever that may be, to work toward P.R.. Period.