I am appaled that Project Democracy projects that the NDP will come in second to the Tories in Pontiac.

 See: http://www.projectdemocracy.ca/pontiac


I don't know where they get their data but this kind of information is bound to split the vote and make sure that Cannon is reelected.


I have sent them an email but don't expect an answer.



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Thanks for posting Pierre. I tried to send an email to Project Democracy about the same thing but it wouldn't send.

The numbers for Pontac are so off base it calls into question the models and subsequent projections. They must be goofing on the same thing the media are about the NDP in Quebec, and multiplying by the number of English voters in the riding. In the Pontiac it took the previously very well known candidate two federal elections to poll 6,000 votes.  Newby Sensei former Communist M. Ravignat is not going to get even that.  Same goes for the Bloq.

Hi Pierre,

I just followed your lead and sent them a message as well. Feels strange, as a card-carrying NDPer, to be protesting so loudly about a positive NDP spin. Strange days indeed. However, if the whole point is to NOT split the vote, we have to do what we have to do. Hopefully, the people running these websites will start doing some more serious analysis - otherwise, we're going to have Cannon/Harper laughing all the way back to Parliament.

Democratic Space has the Tories at 29-34, NDP at 23-28, Libs at 19-24 and the Bloc at 14-19. 


Is it just me, or does it seem that it is always acceptable to shift ones vote from NDP to Lib, but there is significant friction when going the other way is proposed?  I could be wrong, but it almost seems as strategic voting, for the Liberals anyway, is more of a vote grabbing strategy than an honest effort to block a Tory majority.

Jeff, I think everyone here is looking at the reality of our riding and making a calculated decision based on that. I would LOVE to be able to tell everyone to rally behind the NDP or Green candidate - I always vote for one of those parties, depending on the election and the candidates. I am loath to vote for the Liberals - but I'm doing it this time because it's the only thing that makes sense. Cindy came in second in 2008. The NDP came in fourth - and that was with a relatively strong candidate. Ravignat would have to pull a rabbit out of a hat to do better than Celine Brault did, given that his campaign is just getting off the ground now. Do you think there's compelling evidence that we're not looking at?

Being half a continent away here in Winnipeg, I would truly have a tough time gauging the feeling in the riding, so I'll take your word for it. ;-) 

 I just found it odd that the projections for Pontiac on other sites (threehundredeight, democraticspace, to name a couple) show the NDP polling in second within reach of the Tories.  I should probably put less stock in these projections, but the eternal optomist in me thinks/hopes this is the unprecedented breakthrough.  This election just has the feel of unchartered waters....

I received a response to my email to them. They did not offer to help out Pontiac by changing their recommendation from NDP to Liberal, and pointed to the information about the province as a whole - which we already knew and which I already told them. I accused them of working with the Conservatives to ensure that Cannon is re-elected.

Too bad that Catch-22 is not receptive either. I can see why Brendan became frustrated and left the group. I just received a phone call from Gary Shaul asking me to donate to Catch-22. I don't think so - although I do understand that Pontiac is probably a very low priority for them and there are many ridings in play in this election. It's just that we have a chance to defeat Cannon and there are a number of people who have energy to work on that - only Catch-22 and project democracy, etc. etc. are not listening to us! Why is that?

Yes, I've been emailing back and forth with Gary as well - I really hope they take a closer look at this. I think this riding could be a major story - there's a very good chance of toppling a Conservative minister. The icing on the cake would've been to have done it with an NDP or Green candidate, but we'll take what we can get. 


On a separate note... it's almost cruel to keep hearing the news about how well the NDP are doing in Quebec right now. I only wish our riding were part of the trend! Gretchen, do you know if there are even viable riding associations for either the NDP or the Greens? The riding association address for the Pontiac NDP is in Montreal, and I can't find anything for the Green party. It just doesn't feel like there's any organizational structure behind their campaigns here. Has anyone even seen an NDP or Green sign anywhere in the riding?

Hi Alexia, The NDP riding association for Pontiac was always centered in Wakefield and we often met at the Black Sheep Inn. Brenda Rooney was the President and Eric Hébert was liaison with the federal party because he worked in the Ottawa office. I'm seeing that Eric is working elsewhere now (not for the NDP) and I don't know what Brenda is up to politically or otherwise, other than her drama activities with the Wakefield Players and the film work and the Grannies. I am from the other side of the mountain - over by Shawville, and of course there is nothing there. The Greens were generally organizing out of the region around Gatineau when I was involved. It's challenging to keep the energy up when so much paperwork and other boring stuff needs to be done, and then you are just part of a marginal party that doesn't get many votes or much other attention. But at least I felt that I was ethically on the good team! I was out in the Pontiac over the week-end and saw Cannon and McMillan signs only.

Maybe Project Democracy is right.


I have just found a web site that tracks polls around the country 




In Pontiac, it shows the Conservatives at 31.1%, the NDP at 24.%, the Liberals at 19.7% just ahead of the Bloc at 19,2% and the Greens are at 5.2%


I don't see Bloc voters switching to the Liberals but they may be attracted to the labor/socialist platform of the NDP.


Therefore, the NDP does seem like the strategic vote as they can attract votes from both the Bloc and the Liberals and, maybe, the Greens.


Furthermore, we need to get the 45% of people that did not bother to vote last time to let their voice be heard because they will make the difference (one way or the other).


Hi Pierre, This is you a few days ago, right? This is when Project Democracy actually first came out with the NDP endorsement and you reacted against it. Now today I think I saw where you announced that Project Democracy has endorsed the NDP, and you seem surprised or stunned and amazed or something...?? I find that confusing. It's still Project Democracy and it's still the NDP endorsement. Same thing.  If they already endorsed the NDP and you said (quite correctly) that "this kind of information is bound to split the vote and make sure that Cannon is re-elected," what changed?  Do you think that some sort of magic spell has been cast and all the life-long Liberals in Pontiac are going to vote NDP now? I am asking because I am confused at the radical change in your posts. 

I read today where the "largely francophone" riding of Pontiac (and it's 58% Francophone, so hardly "largely") was going to vote NDP. I don't think that these predictions are being made by people who know anything. People who are engaged in politics are caught up in the excitement, and it really is too bad that, as you say above, we are going to "split the vote and make sure that Cannon is re-elected." Any other outcome is dreaming, I think. 

What a difference a week can make!

On April 20, NO ONE saw the NDP tsunami coming in Quebec.

Today, as a result of local polling in Pontiac, Project Democracy actually recommends that people vote for the NDP.

That is quite different than their previous projections based on national or provincial polls.

They actually put their X in the NDP spot!


I agree - and I think another big difference is that the Project Democracy endorsement is now based on local polling, the results of which just came out today. I think many of us were rightfully concerned a week ago. However, having more local data PLUS the overwhelming numbers that are moving to the NDP nation-wide makes me think this is really happening.


I should also add that Mathieu came out of the starting gate quite late in the game (compared to such a well-known local candidate like Cindy), so we're only NOW getting to know who he is, what he stands for, and what his capabilities are. I thought at the all-candidates debate the other night, for example, he did an exceptional job.



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