The margin of error of Nanos polls range from 5.7 to 10.3, meaning they could be off by as much as 11.4 to 20.6. They are intentionally distorting the numbers to confuse strategic voters.
If we want to unseat Cannon - if that is our goal, then we will vote Liberal.
If we want to assess the candidates and choose the most qualified one (in our opinion) or if we are looking for some rationale that will allow us to vote NDP because we LIKE the NDP best, then we are going to split the vote and Cannon will win.
As I have said repeatedly, I know this riding and I know that the overwhelming majority of people are not actively engaged in politics. They vote but they do not assess the candidates as to their qualifications, intelligence, grace under pressure, knowledge of broader issues, and the like. They vote for a party. That's it; that's all.
This riding has gone Liberal for 56 out of the past 75 years or 75% of the time, and Conservative for 19 years. It is not a Conservative stronghold by any means. The Liberals have well organized riding associations throughout the riding.
Just because you like the NDP and find it uplifting that there is a rise in support in Quebec does not mean that it will win in Pontiac, especially with an unknown, former Communist Party candidate who has been ridiculed in the press. Much of Pontiac has disdain for Quebec and will not respond to the NDP surge.
Although I like the NDP, I even ran for MP in the 2004 election as an NDP candidate, my main goal is to try to unseat Cannon. If everyone who voted NDP would vote Liberal, it would be done and Cannon would be sent packing.
It's so frustrating that people want to vote NDP when it will only contribute to another Conservative MP to potential nightmare scenario of a Conservative majority!