Based on the most recent 4 polls in Quebec, the NDP is now projected to win Pontiac.
It does not make any sense at all, with the Liberals at last place in Quebec - to recommend them as the preferred strategic vote against the Conservatives.
The NDP is projected to win by 13700 to 12200 over the Conservatives. However, the Liberals could play spoiler here.
It is simply unrealistic to expect given the trajectory of this election that the Liberals stand any chance of pulling this off.
The latest projections by Project Democracy show the NDP in the lead as a result of regional poling on April 28.
BTW party machines are the "old way".
I believe that what we are witnessing is a grass roots movement very much like what happened in Tunisia, Egypt, Lybia, Yemen, etc. These people were no longer afraid of the "machine". They didn't need anyone to tell them what to think. They followed their natural instinct for freedom. I hope that we can do the same.
I would not at all be surprised that when the special regional poll is in, the Catch 22 recommendation will be to vote NDP.
Let's see !
I'm sure that it will be. And I am equally sure that Cannon will win as a result of the vote-split. It would be great if Pontiac changed and got on this progressive movement away from the "old way." Yes, I agree with you about party machines, except that there are so many people in Pontiac who do not have computers, much less high speed. It's not so much that they are "afraid" as they are stuck. I have been speaking with people who plan to vote Conservative and they DO need people to tell them what to think, but they are quite happy to be told.
I respect your wish to follow your "natural instinct for freedom." And I love your romanticism of this election as being some sort of turning point in history like in the Middle East. I'm just sorry that Cannon is going to win.
Indeed the dyed blue people will not change.
The target has to be the 45% of people who did not bother to vote last time.
Many of them are young and are on internet. I am doing my best to reach them.
As they said in the army: "Keep your powder dry" and wait for the Catch 22 recommendation for a strategic vote.
Project Democracy is funding a Pontiac-specific poll today to get a better feeling for the situation.
The results should be out tomorow and will no doubt affect the Catch22 recommendation.
WOW -- I had not seen that video before -- and it is POWERFUL!!!
This Pontiac discussion thread is very energetic -- and reasonably respectful (especially when compared to the comments following the video on U-Tube).
I'm open to the kinds of points being made by the pro-NDP-swing proponents, but on the evidence and experience I have (and this could change with a Pontiac-centric poll or two in the next couple of days), I don't think that the CRAP can be sent packing without strategically voting liberal (while holding one's nose tightly) unless a) there's a massive 'new voter' turnout for the NDP b) the CRAP support implodes regionally and nationally, c) the Bloq support evaporates or d) hell freezes over (less likely after today's winds).
So if you want to mobilize those who do have internet access, circulating this video widely could sway some...but how many regular folks actually (have the time to) follow politics that closely to get all the references (or to remember to what they're referring)?
Here's a happier and more uplifting tune!! For all you NDP fans:
Harper said that the NDP's promises amounted to large tax hikes, as high as 10 cents a liter on gas, for example.
I gassed up last week at 126.9 a liter. I just drove by the station this morning and it's 136.9 - up 10 cents, and we haven't even voted yet. A 10 cent tax hike seems very little compared to the usual weekly hike in the price of gas. We will be paying over $1.50 by the summer anyway, and that will go to oil companies more than tax revenue.
You have to admit, the NDP came up with a strong message about getting the money for their programs by taxing big oil and banks. Most people are tired of getting gouged at the pump and the ATM while hearing about record profits from Banks and Oil Companies in the middle of a recession. Most of us would have no qualms about seeing Goverment increase taxes on corporations for a change, but can we realistically expect to see that happen with Big Business driving the big blue Conservative machine (and most other major parties) as it is now? No wonder this grassroots NDP wave is taking hold - people have had enough and they don't want more of the same.
So my question remains: Who's #2 in Pontiac so they can get my vote?!? The Bloc was second in 2006. Liberals were second in 2008. Now it looks like the NDP will be second in 2011. Can we get accurate localized poll results ahead of time so we can avoid another vote split and X more years of Cannon?
Is this accurate or just another extrapolation?
See my new Discussion thread
Project Democracy has identified Mathieu Ravignat of the NDP as the Go to guy to unseat Cannon !!
Just getting back online after having our power knocked out yesterday. Anyway, just wanted to say that I think there's every possibility that BOTH the NDP and the Liberals are going to out pace the Conservatives on Monday. Judy Rebick has an interesting article on her blog about voting strategically and voting with your heart, and that maybe we can do both this time. The NDP is doing incredibly well - a big surprise to all of us, I think. Mathieu is a much more credible candidate than we thought - I think that he just hasn't had the time or resources to build a campaign, and time is short. I'd like to get behind him (and the NDP) and make this happen. Darin, I agree with you - I may not know him well, but from what I've seen of him so far, he seems to be bringing a lot of intelligence and integrity to the job.
Here's a great article out today, for those who haven't seen it: