Based on the most recent 4 polls in Quebec, the NDP is now projected to win Pontiac.
It does not make any sense at all, with the Liberals at last place in Quebec - to recommend them as the preferred strategic vote against the Conservatives.
The NDP is projected to win by 13700 to 12200 over the Conservatives. However, the Liberals could play spoiler here.
It is simply unrealistic to expect given the trajectory of this election that the Liberals stand any chance of pulling this off.
The people who are creating those polls are not from the Pontiac riding. They are using Quebec-wide data and making a giant leap of some sort. If you review the stats from previous elections (08,06 and especially back before those elections when Pontiac was always Liberal) you will see that the NDP never got more than 7000 votes in the Pontiac. There are many many people in this riding, which includes no urban areas, except for Mont-Laurier - which generally goes Bloq, who will vote the way that they always have voted, and the large majority of them do not acknowledge that there are more than two parties. I believe that is the rationale behind the prediction here - just FYI since you seem to be confused about it. People are not going to become part of the NDP wave except in the largely progressive Chelsea/Wakefield region, which is less than 1/3 of the riding, and there's an outside chance that some Bloq voters could swing to NDP. That could happen.
But I believe that you are correct about the Liberals "spoiling" things and causing Cannon's re-election; same with the NDP. It could be a three-way split between them and the Bloq for second place. The thing is, if the Liberals will win any riding in Quebec, Pontiac is one of the more likely ones. I strongly believe that there is no chance it will swing to the NDP. Realistically speaking, the NDP surge is great news for the Conservatives in Pontiac. Cannon's seat is looking increasingly safe!
I don't want to be pessimistic here and it would be my dream come true to have the NDP win, but realistically it's not gonna happen because the great majority of people in this riding are habituated to voting Liberal or Conservative. The Pontiac is a special place that way. It's a very large riding and most of the voters do not even identify with Quebec.
The projections ARE based on the previous election results. They tell us that EVEN the NDP are growing SO much that they would win even in a riding where they were way behind last election.
All those new voters in Quebec have to live somewhere, and that somewhere is Pontiac.
There is another web site making projections and they show the Conservatives in the lead with 31.% with the NDP second at 27,6% and the liberals at 18%.
See: http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/ and click on the national projections to see ridingprojections in a pdf file.
BTW, in their FAQs, they provide a clear explanation of their methodolgy as well as of the other predictors.
Stay tuned !
|DUNCAN MCMILLAN, Cindy||Liberal||10,396||24.2%|
Clearly these election results from 2008 do not show any sort of NDP interest at all, so I'm not sure what you mean by "[T]he projections ARE based on the previous election results." Unless you mean that they are based on the opposite of the last election results.
"EVEN the NDP are growing SO much.... " What does that mean? If it's "even" the NDP, that implies that the other parties are "growing" as well, and I don't think that's the case.
Also, no new voters live in Pontiac, I'm very sure. I was just out driving around the riding today and it looks pretty much the same. Same Liberal billboards at the same houses as always. No NDP signs anywhere except on the highway and tons of Cannon Conservative signs. Nothing new at all. I used to hope for change or for some sort of awakening from the coma of denial. I think that I will still vote Liberal.
Pontiac riding also includes Buckingham (population 22,000+), Masson Angers (pop. 9,000+), L'Ange Gardien (pop. 4,000+)..
In the last election, the vote was split relatively evenly between the Liberals, the Consevatives, the NDP and the Bloc according to detailed poll results for the riding.
The Conservative stronghold seems to be in the Western part of the riding. And, even there, there were some three or four way races.
I would say that everything is up in the air and that we need to stay tuned.
|DUNCAN MCMILLAN, Cindy||Liberal||10,396||24.2%|
These are the figures on the Catch 22 website for Pontiac in the 2008 election. I wouldn't call 6,616 vs. 14, 023 "close" really or that the vote was split evenly at all. The Liberals and Bloq were close - less than 500 votes apart. Yes, I am aware that in Pontiac riding there are some towns with over 3-4,000 people living in them. I wouldn't call them "urban" because to me, that signifies a certain mentality. I think I mentioned that I ran for MP twice, so I travelled all over the riding and spoke with people in those places you mention. Also I just drove out from Ottawa to the western end of the riding today and saw lots of Conservative posters especially near Chelsea/Wakefield area. The usual Liberal folks had their Liberal billboards up in their yards, and same with the Conservatives. There were no NDP signs except on the main highway (148).
I don't really think that anything is up in the air in terms of who is going to win. It will be Cannon for sure. Even if we here at Catch 22 figure out by some scientific flawless method that the Liberals or the NDP are the best bet for unseating him (and we won't), and even if we were able to let sufficient numbers of people know about this (which isn't going to happen either), there are too many died-in-the-wool Liberal voters (and others) who will not vote strategically. I know lots of people who want to vote how they want to vote and that's that. They want to give their favourite party $2 before Harper eliminates that option. Oh well, we tried, right?
The point is that the last election is no longer a useful guide to how Quebecers will vote this election.
It is clear that things have CHANGED, and that people who previously supported the Liberals and Bloc, are now supporting the NDP.
Yes, the NDP was behind in Pontiac when the NDP polling 12% in Quebec. However, this is a completely different election, where the NDP is polling at 30% The NDP - across Quebec - is projected to do TWENTY percent (20%) better. That would put the NDP at OVER 40% in Pontiac!
Even http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/ shows the NDP narrowly in the lead in Pontiac.
It seems that the Orange wave is affecting the Outaouais region and even the Pontiac riding in spite of the lack of visibility of our local candidate.
There is an all candidate debate tomorrow at the Black Sheep Inn. I wonder if that will actually make a diference? It will probably depend on the media coverage.
I plan to attend and see for myself.
In the mean time, I will try to convince local media to cover this debate.
I suggest that you do the same.
Let's keep the pressure on to make sure that Harper does not get a majority.
That's the plan, Pierre. We want to try to unseat Cannon. And the Liberal is the only possibility. Pontiac is a weird riding and most of it is antithetical to Quebec, so there is no Orange wave in the riding. I went all over the place on Sunday and there were all of the usual Liberal signs up; and as Gary mentioned today, there were some Liberals who did not like Dion, so they will be coming out to vote Liberal this time even though they didn't the last time. I'll be in Shawville tomorrow night so will miss the debate.
Just because someone at 308 or project democracy or wherever - with no knowledge of the region says that the NDP is going to win Pontiac, does not make it so. They know nothing of the mentality of the residents. The only people who will vote NDP are the usual NDP voters and the few who visit the strategic voting sites. It's so frustrating because there is already a huge stable base of Liberal support, which we could have all joined in on and now the vote will be split between the huge Liberal voting block in the region and these people who want to stop Cannon, so they are being told to vote NDP. It's crazy! The Liberal base will not shift their vote to NDP in order to vote strategically. They are Liberals and that's how they vote.
I am voting Liberal and telling everyone else to do the same. I also got lucky in the Pair Vote and have a Liberal over in Ontario voting Green for me over there in a safe riding. So I don't feel so bad about it!
Interesting article in the G&M:
Very strange election - not sure what to make of this. I still don't understand HOW national and provincial polls are being applied to this riding. It just doesn't any sense based on historical data and the relative strength of this election's candidates.
By the way, anyone notice the Citizen article today saying that Cannon isn't planning to show up at tomorrow's debate at the Black Sheep? How do the Conservatives continue to conduct themselves this way and still get support?
Yeah, the national and provincial polls are somehow figured into the last election statistics and there is an assumed alignment between Pontiac and the rest of Quebec. That is the part that is flawed because much of Pontiac identifies more with Ontario. Also, there is no NDP organization in the riding except in Wakefield Chelsea area. When I ran for the NDP, I met with a few individuals in Buckingham but there were only a handful of people everywhere else in the riding - except Wakefield Chelsea. That debate at the Black Sheep should be great for NDP'ers to go out to! Paul, the owner is very supportive of the party. We used to have our meetings there! I am attaching a link telling that the Conservatives are being told not to attend All-Candidates Debates. One even cited wanting to avoid the "bickering" as a reason not to attend. SHAME. How DO they continue to conduct themselves this way and still get support? That is the question on everyone's mind, I think!
Meanwhile I'm voting Liberal and telling everyone else to do so as well. If the NDP wins the riding, I cordially invite Pierre, Urbanist, and all others on this site to meet me at the Black Sheep and I will buy the first round!