Poll by poll analysis of the Ottawa West-Nepean Riding.
John this is great to have this. I suppose now we need a plan of attack on how we can target our resources and volunteers for maximum impact. One thing that really stands out is the low turnout rate in every poll.
This is excellent!
I too think that the key criteria in the analysis for focusing attention is low turnout, but even more given that we have limited human resources, focusing attention on geographic areas where there was low turnout in multiple contiguous polling areas. We had discussed targeting polls where the vote was close during our meeting last week; is this an important criteria or is it better to aim for increasing the total number of votes period for the endorsed candidate?
A technical question - I seem to be able to read postings on this forum without providing my password but only able to post by giving my password. Shouldn't the riding forum but completely password protected? Or, is it felt that transparency with our tactics is a positive?
If you click on the photo at the bottom of the page here http://catch22campaign.ca/notes/Ottawa_West%E2%80%94Nepean
you will see a map with all of the riding numbers..
I don't live in the riding, but I'm totally on board with your idea. I think targeted leaflet drops in key polls would be the most effective method of informing voters. There's a reason candidates do leaflets. They work!
Punditsguide.ca has a neat mapping feature that lays out exactly where the boundary lines are:
http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding/?riding=1119&pane=3 (scroll to the bottom)
The only slight difference I would have with your approach would be to focus on polls where the NDP and Greens did well, and try to flip them. I think that's where we'll find more success.
I think there's something to be said about low turnout polls as well though. Perhaps if we could identify polls that saw a drop in turnout from 2006 to 2008, we could identify polls that were hit by the "Dion effect".
I am outside the riding as well but work within it and traverse it more or less daily.
I have a spreadsheet for 2008 polling data which omits the Green votes for some reason. I am going through the Google Earth map, pulling up poll by poll information and then adding it into the spreadsheet.
In approx 25% of the polls the vote went to Baird due to splits on the left between Lib, NDP, and Green. I have not completed my review but these appear to be relatively high turnout ridings (57% to 75%).
My basic premise remains: Providing actual polling data information to resident of poll precincts will enable them to act in their own self interest to vote strategically to defeat Baird.
According to Elections Canada it appears any spending I do on behalf of Catch-22 constitutes a reportable expense. Catch-22 appears very de-centralized and I am not sure who I should contact to get clearance on using Catch-22 name and URL on a leaflet.
The spreadsheet at the top of this post, OttawaWestNepean-pollbypoll_bureauparbureau35066.xls has all of the data. The Greens were omitted as the number of votes were insignificant.
If you want the raw data you can get it here: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/resval/ovr_40ge.asp?prov=&lang=e which will save you a lot of cutting and pasting.
The raw data here: http://www.elections.ca/scripts/resval/ovr_40ge.asp?prov=&lang=e
Is great. Easy to download and pull into OpenOffice or Excel of Google Docs.
I sent a query to Tracy Morey. Can you view that on her page?
I am trying to determine how to create a landing page on Catch-22 so that persons getting a printed flyer can enter that URL and arrive here at a page with a list of polling stations and additional URLS so they can click and view the vote split in their own polling district.
I posted a sample of the google map presentation idea elsewhere on Catch-22. Trying now to confirm the entire process, make sure it works as intended and then create sample flyer for distribution and approval / sign off.
The underlying CMS appears to be ning. http://www.ning.com/.
It looks like you could do a blog post which would be accessed with a URL like:
something like this:
Someone may be able to offer a simpler approach but as I am not an admin this is how I would work around the issue.
You're right Francis. All expenses have to be pre-approved. They can be routed through the Ottawa group co-ordinator(s) preferably. We're just wrapping up the literature and will have a process in place to expedite approvals for printing.