Dear Kenora Catch 22 Campaign supporters,
For the past year, the Catch 22 Campaign has been identifying vulnerable Conservative ridings, networking, building our base and laying the groundwork for the election. We have spent the first couple of weeks of the election getting input from local supporters in target ridings.
We had successful endorsement meetings in Ottawa and Vancouver last week. We also pioneered our first online endorsement discussion in Saanich-Gulf Islands and rolled that out to an additional 25 Conservative ridings earlier this week.
However, in Kenora, the Catch 22 Campaign team is unable to make a recommendation at this time. It's just too close to call. We need more information and your input in order to make an informed decision.
- In the 2008 election, the Liberal and NDP candidates were ran close to each other in a 40/31/23 split;
- The website Three hundred eight, which makes projections, has the Liberal with a slight lead over the NDP. With margins of error, we just don't feel ready to make a recommendation without local input. If we are unable to come to a firm conclusion, we will not include Kenora in our voters guide.
Discussion on the Kenora candidate recommendation will end on April 10 at noon local time.
I will give the following reasons for the Liberal candidate winning:
1) Roger Valley is the former mayor of Dryden. He was also the former MP for the region during the local economic downturn (which had little to do with the global one) when the mill was in its final lay-off process. What I mean is that people know him, they know what he can do, and they are comfortable with him.
2) Until the last election there had never been a Conservative elected in the region. I believe that people had made a decision to elect a member of the national leading party in hopes that it would help our region recover jobs and economic stability. (Un)fortunately that has not happened.
3) The one "gift" received from the federal government was a $22+ million tax break. And again, (un)fortunately it went to the local mill, while local businesses are going bankrupt. This is not sitting well with some people.
4) Roger Valley has also been taking his campaign to the northern regions (which doesn't happen often), visiting many of the communities there. These communities are primarily First Nation reserves, and with the understanding that the First Nations population is the fastest growing one in Canada, it is suspected that he will garner many votes from these communities.
5) The NDP candidate, while more than adequate for the job, has little experience in federal politics. If the race was only between Ms. Cameron and Mr. Rickford, I would hazard that Ms. Cameron would stand a good chance of winning. But with Mr. Valley running well it is doubtful Ms. Cameron will be voted in.
Anyway, those are my reasons for picking Roger Valley. I will add that I am not affiliated with any party, and grew up in Saskatchewan where one always voted NDP. The reasons stated above have been garnered from speaking to people about the issues.
Some good food for thought on the debates. Thanks for kicking off the overall discussion.
We wanted to get wrap up the candidate recommendation process so that we can finalize the advertising plan. I'll run your suggestion by our team and see what people think about extending until mid-week.
Thanks. I hope some more useful information comes forward.
This bit from the "Canada Votes" section of the Apr 9 Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal is supportive though not big on evidence.
Don’t split your vote
Here in Minnesota, attempts to start a third party called the Independence Party (aka Jesse Ventura’s party) have caused vote-splitting with the Democrats. This has benefited Conservative-like Republicans including Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann and Chip Cravaack who defeated Jim Oberstar who represented the Minnesota side of the Canadian-U.S. border.
Don’t let that happen in Canada by vote-splitting. Conservative-like Republicans with the majority in present-day Wisconsin and during the George W. Bush presidency cut millions of dollars from pensioners and took away the rights of public workers.
Canada has a great multiple-party system, so use it. I urge Liberals to support John Rafferty and Bruce Hyer in the Thunder Bay ridings and NDP voters to support Roger Valley in Kenora. In short, instead of voting with your conscience, accept reality and vote with your head.
Saint Paul, Minn.
Maybe it's time for Catch 22 to endorse a candidate for Kenora. Project Democracy http://www.projectdemocracy.ca/kenora has picked Liberal, Roger Valley. The support for Tania Cameron (NDP) seems to be trending downward if threehundredeight.com can be relied upon at least a bit. Here are 3 sets of figures from 308's site:
April 8: Con 44.2%, Lib 31.9%, NDP 20.0%
April 13: Con 44.1%, Lib 32.3%, NDP 19.8%
April 15: Con 43..8%, Lib 32.3%, NDP 19.5%
The independent candidate seems to be stealing a few votes from Con and NDP.
I heard a bit of the candidates' debate from Dryden. Tania Cameron sounded like a really good person, someone I'd probably vote for if I lived in that riding and under other circumstances, that is if we had a fair representation system or if we didn't have such a bunch of masterful con artists to deal with as we have in Harper's Conservatives. But I think Roger Valley is the one most likely to beat the Conservative incumbent if anybody can.