Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Maggie Logan on April 7, 2011 at 9:54am

 I am new to the riding and agree Ms. Gallant must go,however I do not think Hec is the one to do that. The Liberal looks very promising and I think it would be better for Hec to drop out and throw his support behind Christine Tabbert. An indepentant canidate can not be a strong voice for the riding and I think Hecs  support for the Liberal could make the race a real challenge for Ms. Gallant. Its not like that isn't happening in other ridings. The most important thing to remember is how dreadful another Neocon win would be

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Permalink Reply by Marie Heartwood on April 7, 2011 at 2:24pm

Hi Maggie,

I fully agree that another Neocon win in this riding would be a bad thing. We must do what ever we can to prevent it.

Christine seems to be a very capable candidate and I have nothing against her. I'm sure she'd make a fine and competent MP. But an election, when you get down to it, is a popularity contest. She may be more popular in the big city (Pembroke). I live near the western edge of the county. Out here, no one has heard of her. No one can remember who the Liberal candidate is or even if we have one. (Don't come out here. It's depressing.) That represents a problem. For her to succeed, she needs name recognition. Her being a Liberal won't be enough. Too much of this riding is red tory and will vote conservative just because the word "Conservative" is on the ballot.

(One of my clients is going to vote Conservative just because he's a conservative. He compared it to buying cars. Some people will buy the best car for the money, and some will buy a Chevy just because it's a Chevy. He's the latter. I'm the former.)

I travel a fair bit around the riding as part of my job. I see a heck of a lot of "Give 'em Hec" signs everywhere I go. The second most are the "Cheryl Gallant" signs. Other signs are very much missing. So I'm gauging by a very uncertain means that Hector Clouthier has a lot more support and certainly a lot more name recognition at this time than Christine Tabbert.

The other problem out here is that news filters through very slowly. Even if someone was able to convince Hector to drop out and support Christine, very few people out here would be likely to hear about it. And if they don't hear about it, and don't see Hector on the ballot, who are they going to vote for? We don't want to go there.

Also, I think expecting any candidate to drop out, especially if they have chosen to run as an independent, is a dream. He can't be thrown out by his party because he doesn't have one. He clearly has enough money to consider entering the campaign. In Hector's case, he also has experience, including having been Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of National Defence. And given the number of signs out this way, he clearly has name recognition. From what I've heard, he also has a good reputation from his time as MP. He's also originally from the area. What this means is that he's running because he's fully convinced that he has a decent chance of actually being elected. The chances of a group of people convincing him to drop out and support Christine is, in my estimation, virtually NIL. Therefore, Hector is going to be on the ballot on May 2 whether we like it or not. We're just going to need to deal with that. Wishing it were different won't make it so.

The argument that an independent does not have a strong voice, if the government in power is a minority government, is lacking substance. In a majority government, you would be correct, but in a minority government, the opposite is true. In Australia, the government is a minority and only propped by a handful of independents. Those independents wield tremendous power. In a minority government, the governing party needs all the votes it can get to stay in power and move its agenda forward, and that means wooing the independents for their vote. An independent can't be whipped, or kicked out of caucus, so they only vote with the government in exchange for the government giving them what they want in return. So in a minority government, independents end up with a magnified voice over party members (who can be threatened by the whip to tow the party line) in parliament.

The important thing to remember about independent MPs is that they each still have a vote in parliament. They don't just disappear because they don't belong to a party. They don't form a voting block the way a party does. So in a close voting situation, the kind that occurs regularly in minority governments, they may be the deciding vote. And so the government in power must find a way to convince them to vote along their lines. And this is what amplifies their voice in those situations. So are we going into a majority or a minority government? I'm betting it's going to be a minority of some kind.

Unfortunately, if you don't study parliamentary history and you've lived all of your life in a mostly majority government situation, you aren't likely to know this. And since this describes most people alive today, it admittedly creates an obstacle for Hector. He needs to get that message out better, if he wants to succeed, because a lot of people are not hearing it.

But our main goal is get as many people to vote for who ever will most easily push past the post first, and thus kick Gallant to the curb. Gallant is the incumbent, has name recognition, and has the popular Conservative party name behind her, but she now has the reputation for being a twit. Hector has the experience, and the name recognition, and is recognized by many as someone who got things done for this riding, but people are wary because he's an independent. Christine is a competent person but largely unknown, has no experience, lacks any kind of reputation one way or another, isn't originally local, and has the less popular Liberal party name behind her. None of these are going to drop out willingly. If this were our ballot, all of it, who has the best chance of beating Gallant past the post? That's what it comes down to. If these were the only 3 names on the ballot, the question is, can Christine garner more votes than Hector, and enough through out the riding, to kick Gallant to the curb?

Christine can't win this riding by riding on the Liberal party's coat tails. The Liberals are not popular enough here for that to happen (thanks to the long gun registry). She needs to campaign hard if she's going to make it. She needs campaign leaflets out last week. She needs to be out knocking on doors, shaking hands, holding little rallies in each and every one of the communities outside of Pembroke. She needs to bring her campaign to the people, have them meet her, convince them to vote for her, no matter which party she belongs to. She needs to remind them, it isn't just about Harper, it's about Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke! She's got a massive uphill battle ahead of her, and everyone here knows it. If they see her fighting, she has a chance.

However, most of us, haven't seen her at all.

Hector, on the other hand, he's doing all of that, as best as he can. People see him. He's campaigning, really campaigning. He's been out to Comberemere (the farthest end of this riding), shaking hands, talking to voters. He's seen doing the hard work, including hammering in lawn signs.

When I lived in Ottawa Centre, and we had an election, you'd better believe the candidates had their members out in force. If it was going to take a visit by Ed Broadbent himself to convince a voter, Ed was there. He kicked ass. Small wonder the riding went NDP. Dewar's done the same.

So if you really want us to vote for Christine Tabbert, tell her to get her ass in gear!

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Permalink Reply by Steve Dempsey on April 8, 2011 at 9:25am

I am a long time friend and current volunteer on Christine Tabbert's campaign; thank you for sharing your concerns. I will respect this forum and not high jack it to make a pitch for Christine...but would like to share a few things to help everyone make the best decision possible...and ultimately vote for change.

1) Christine is born and raised outside Pembroke; her family is now in its 5th generation dairy farming operation

2) If you would like to follow where Christine is campaigning, she is posting daily updates to her Twitter and and Facebook pages (and the Twitter posts can be viewed on her main web page too)

3) If you would like to know when Christine is going to be campaigning in the western edge of the county please contact the campaign office at 613 629 2010.

 

Have a great day and see you at the polls,

Steve

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Permalink Reply by Marie Heartwood on April 8, 2011 at 5:02pm

It appears my knowledge about Christine, which was that she was parachuted into this riding, was completely wrong. I apologize for my mistake, but it would seem that too many people out here are misinformed. That needs to be fixed.

I don't mind someone hijacking this thread if they can be reasonably certain that their candidate choice has a better chance of kicking Gallant to the curb. So please feel free to do so.

I do not want to espouse one candidate over another. If you are a hard core liberal, I expect you to vote liberal. If you are a hard core NDPer, I expect you to support the NDP. If you are a hard core Green, I expect you to vote Green. But if you're here because you're trying to figure who you can vote for who isn't Cheryl Gallant and has the best chance of getting Gallant kicked out, that's what this thread is all about.

It would be nice if we had some local polling numbers to go by. It would allow us to make better informed decisions. Making decisions based on the number of campaign signs is not a very good way of determining the probability of a candidate winning. This is going to be a hard battle. Too many will vote for the candidate with the Conservative party name beside them just because they want a "conservative". A certain number will vote for the Liberal, NDP, or Green candidate for the exact same reason. The last thing we want is to split the vote and have Gallant squeeze through the middle. I'll honestly vote for the one candidate who has the best odds of kicking out Gallant. But to do that effectively, we need some kind of metrics to go by. Does anyone out there have a better source of metrics for this specific riding?

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Permalink Reply by Marie Heartwood on April 8, 2011 at 5:30pm

This is from the Globe and Mail:

"Though the margin of error is higher in regional breakdowns, they show the Liberals within seven points of the Tories in Ontario (38 per cent versus 45 per cent), while the NDP has fallen steadily (to 11 per cent). The situation is similar in Atlantic Canada, though the NDP remain more competitive in Quebec and British Columbia."

It would be nice if we had a break down of that for this riding. But of course, they likely aren't polling in this riding.

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Permalink Reply by Maggie Logan on April 8, 2011 at 10:17pm

 Hi Marie

    Currently there are 5 people running in this riding. With our 1st past the post system this almost guarantees another win for Ms Gallant. Our only hope is to reduce vote splitting and to convince soft Conservative supporters to switch sides. I am sure Hec is a very hard working canidate as I am sure they all are. My hat is off to anyone who  has the courage and energy to enter such a tough race, but we must remember that up until recently this riding was a liberal stronghold.Even Hec held the riding as a Liberal until the issue of gun control came along.Realistically the only two parties that can hope to form a government are the liberals or Conservatives (Harpercons} Polls across the country are beginning to reflect an increase  momentum for the Liberals. and there is no reason to think that momentum will not reflect in this riding as well.

  The Conservatives are weak in most areas. Harper is very weak in health care and Democracy. They seem to be making things up as they go along.

   This may be the most important election ever in Canada. Voters of all ages need to get out and vote . .

 Cheers

 Maggie

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Permalink Reply by Marie Heartwood on April 9, 2011 at 1:16am

Hi Maggie,

Glad to hear back from you.

I agree that we need to avoid vote splitting. This is what Catch 22 is about. Figuring out who has a chance at defeating the conservatives and then encouraging people to vote for that alternative.

According to the Elections Canada web site, we only have 4 candidates in our riding: Eric Burton (NDP), Hec Clouthier (Ind), Cheryl Gallant (Con), and Christine Tabbert (Lib).

To put it simply, I have one goal in this election and only one: ANYONE BUT CHERYL GALLANT!
I don't really care who wins, as long as CHERYL GALLANT LOSES!

As the person who suggest Clouthier in the first place, I'll be 100% honest here. If it looks like Tabbert will get more votes than Clouthier, I will vote for Tabbert and encourage everyone I know to follow suit. But what I want is reciprocity. If it looks like Clouthier will get more votes than Tabbert, Tabbert supporters should defect just to make sure Gallant is voted out. The ultimate goal is not to get Tabbert or Clouthier in, it's to get Gallant out.

With that goal in mind, and only that goal in mind, I want to encourage people to vote for whoever will unseat Gallant. The problem is, I don't have a working crystal ball. I'm guessing simply by what I see and hear around this part of the county. From my perspective, Gallant is leading :-( and might take up to 45% of the vote, Clouthier is second at roughly 35% with a possibility to overtake, Tabbert is pulling up a distant third at roughly 10%, and Burton is not even in sight at less than 2%. (These estimates are admittedly very unscientific.) From your perspective, it may be a very different race. The rest are undecided or need to be kick to get them to go out and vote.

Just so you know my perspective, I roam around between Eganville, Round Lake, Barry's Bay, Palmer Rapids, and Lake Clear. I deal with a alot of older folks. I occasionally make it up to the big city (Pembroke) or out to Renfrew but not often. So that's the area I'm seeing.

Before Gallant, this riding was solid Liberal. It's last liberal MP was Hector Clouthier. Given this, I'd say that it's likely between Gallant, Tabbert, and Clouthier. Burton likely doesn't stand much of a chance. As a result, I'd suggest to anyone who wants to vote NDP, to trade their vote with someone where an NDPer is challenging an incumbent conservative and has a chance of winning. (Of course, that vote trade will almost certainly be to Tabbert's advantage.)

But we need a way to figure out between Tabbert and Clouthier, which is the one most likely to be able to defeat Gallant. I'm not expecting vote trading by the NDP supporters to make a big difference here between these two. I could of course, be wrong on this.

I've told you my perspective and where it comes from. It would help if we could get others from different areas of the riding to give their honest and unbiased perspectives. Who looks to be ahead and where. Then we might be able to figure out where the local electorate is heading and encourage them to switch one way or the other.

Of course, if you're working for a candidate, I don't expect you (Hi Steve) to have an unbiased perspective. Still, any perspective is better than nothing. It's hard to make an informed decision when you don't have enough information. You said earlier that you think Tabbert looks very promising. How promising? What part of the riding are you in? If it was just that part voting, would Tabbert be a hands down winner with over 66% of the decided vote? Is she that promising? This is the information we need to defeat Gallant. Please tell us what you think her odds are.

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Permalink Reply by Seana Finlay on April 9, 2011 at 7:00pm

First of all THANK YOU (yes - I'm shouting 'cause I'm excited) for a Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke post. I'm on twitter, and it's a bit lonely there.

I think I agree with Marie. Hec Clouthier is the one who can replace Gallant. He's independent, so he appeals to both Conservatives and Liberals. Canada is experiencing some political indigestion right now - we're really divided regionally, and none of the "established" parties have a leader that appeals to Canadians from sea to sea to sea. So, we're in a minority government situation, and like it or not, we're here for a while.

Lets be realistic, it's the major urban centres that are going to decide which party makes up the minority government. Our riding needs to vote for someone who is going to represent us. Towing the party line didn't work for us, and it hasn't worked for the past 11 years. We need:

1. Someone who knows parliament inside and out, and not new to the parliamentary process

2. Someone who is politically connected & well respected by the political establishment

3. Someone who will vote for our needs

Sorry, but Christine Tabbert doesn't fit any of these. Neither does Gallant, and ditto for the NDP guy (sorry - haven't seen any signs, so I don't know his name).

If this riding is serious about getting rid of Gallant, we need to stand behind Clouthier.

 

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Permalink Reply by Maggie Logan on April 9, 2011 at 9:19pm

 Hi Marie and Seana.

      I hope you are both right. I would still bet on Christine For a # of reasons.

    Hec ran as an Independant in 1993 and lost. The Liberal won

    In 1997 Hec switched to Liberal and won. Held seat for3 years.

   In 2000 Hec ran as a Liberal and lost to Ms gallant over the gun registry.

  In 2004-06-08 elections  the Liberals always came second ,losing to Ms Gallant.Hec did not run

 In 2011 Hec is running as an Independant once again.

 In all previous elections the race was between the Conservatives or Liberals. The independent canidates or fringe canidates came last. I am uncomfortable with Hecs switching parties,it is a real red flag to me and I think it will be to others.

 This mornings Nanos poll shows Liberals and Neocons neck and neck in ontario.Libs 42.8% ,neocons 42.1%.  Stunning

Of couse polls change and this weeks debate will be important. A small Ekos poll done in Ottawa only ,show the Libs57% and Neocons27%.

  In Canada people vote almost always by party. Parties can achieve things MPs rarely can on thier own. Independants usually have very little effect on the House of Commons

  Just to let you know, I voted Neocon in the last two elections but woke up in Dec2009 when Harper prorogued Parliment to halt the investigation of the Afghan detainee torture issue. As for Mr ignatieff, after watching him in this campaign I am very impressed.  Maggie

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Permalink Reply by Seana Finlay on April 10, 2011 at 2:11pm

I wouldn't worry so much about Clouthier switching from Liberal to Independent. I agree - switching parties is never a good sign, ie Charrest going from Conservative to Liberal, or Rae going from NDP to Liberal. That kind of ideology switching is troubling.

Independent to Liberal and back again just shows that he has leanings towards that party, but perhaps feels too confined by party rule.

 

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Permalink Reply by Dan Meilleur on April 10, 2011 at 8:57pm

I don't see Clouthier as being somebody who switched parties, but rather more of a case of someone stepping outside the lock parties have had on most ridings.  If you look at the things he's saying, there are some arguments he makes about independents that make a lot of sense.  As far as I'm concerned, he's got as much right to run for public office as anyone else, and I don't recall Moses coming down from the mountain with a tablet that said only Liberals or Conservatives can speak for the people.  Granted, I've never voted for an independent in my life, but right now, this guy is giving it everything that he's got, and I won't be surprised at all if he's rewarded for it with a win.

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Permalink Reply by Steve Dempsey on April 11, 2011 at 9:23am

Upfront Disclaimer: I'm a volunteer on Christine Tabbert's campaign and am looking to support the conversation with facts and not use this forum as "sell".

 

I agree with Maggie (above) that "Independants usually have very little effect on the House of Commons" and struggle to represent themselves in the House. Here is my understanding of how the House operates around independent MP's (and why I'm supporting Christine):

* The independant does not get a question in Question Period unless the other parties give them a chance

* Independents do not receive research monies; the beauty of a party MP is they get
funding from the House according to how many seats they have. They can then develop a Research Bureau which helps the members create Bills (that presumably support thier region)
* History has shown that an MP in a caucus who can get the weight of the caucus behind them can introduce legislation; an independent MP without a caucus rarely if ever can introduce legislation

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