Peterborough

I'm going to try to insert a table here of what happened in Ptbo riding in 2006 and 2008 (note that the spaces that I tried to put between the dates and election results don't seem to copy over, sorry about that::


Party Candidate                       2008                      2006

CPC Dean Del Mastro     27,629 (47.41%)      22,774 (35.9% )

Lib Betsy McGregor        18,413 (31.59%)       20,532 (32.37%)

NDP Steve Sharpe            8,110 (13.92%)       16,286 (25.68%)

Green Emily Berrigan           4,029 (6.91%)           3,205 (5.05%)

Other --                                  98 ( .17%)                     634 (1%)

In 2006, the Liberals, NDPs, and Greens ran different/new candidates

I’m no political scentist, but I would say that in 2006, with a mere
3.5% diff between CPC and Libs, and with the NDP having a strong
showing, I’d speculate that the Libs lost support to the Conservatives
AND to the NDP. Hard to say why Del Mastro’s support jumped in 2008
because both Libs and NDP lost support (I’d speculate that Libs lost
traditional support and NDP traditional support moved Liberal in an
effort to vote strategically).

The riding had been Liberal from 1993 to 2004, held Peter Adams (four terms) until he retired in 2006.

I'm going to continue doing research in my riding to see what we can do about changing things there.

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Permalink Reply by Gary Shaul on March 20, 2010 at 6:32pm
From a cursory look at the two elections, it appears that voting turnout dropped significantly (5 - 10%) in 2008. Why do you think that was? There was a 16% margin between 1st and 2nd place. It would seem that Del Maestro would need to lose a lot of votes in order to lose.
Permalink Reply by Lexy Cameron on March 20, 2010 at 6:49pm
I was doing some research this afternoon on voter turnout. Apparently, across Canada, Liberals stayed away in droves in 2008. And that might suggest what happened in Peterborough.

I'm going to look at trends a little more. If we can re-interest those liberals and engage more young people, we should have a shot at it.
Permalink Reply by Jennifer Owen on April 25, 2011 at 12:51am
This is my first election voting in Peterborough and I REALLY REALLY hope Del Mastro gets booted!! thanks for the numbers!
Permalink Reply by Lexy Cameron on April 25, 2011 at 9:53am

Hi Jennifer,

 

I did an update to my research and this is what I have concluded re Peterborough Riding:

 

I believe that there are several factors which may be positive for a good showing by the Liberals in the Peterborough Riding in 2011.  With 64% turnout in 2006, the Liberal candidate, Diane Lloyd, lost Ptbo by 2,242 votes (Del Mastro had 35.9% of votes, Lloyd 32.4%, NDP candidate 25.7%).

 

It is known that during the 2008 election, vast numbers of Liberal supporters just did not vote.   By all accounts, voter turnout will be vastly improved this election in 2011.

 

In 2008, it seems obvious that traditional NDP supporters voted strategically and that shows in the numbers:  NDP support dropped to 13.92% but because Liberals stayed home, support for the Liberal candidate didn’t improve, in fact it dropped to 31.59% of the total votes.

 

Could that be because (a) Liberals stayed home in 2008? (b) Harper demonized the possibility of a coalition (inaccurately saying that the Bloc would have some power) and so that drew additional votes to the Conservative fold?

 

This time the Liberals have the advantage of:

 

(a) a very strong candidate, Betsy McGregor, who has been highly visible in the riding for the past two years, people have come to know that she is extremely qualified, very smart and very committed to our riding;

 

(b) voter turnout will be higher, Liberals WILL vote;

 

(c) because Harper and his govt scares people, there will be much strategic voting;

 

(d) scandals and Contempt of Parliament charge has turned people off Conservatives.

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