Based on the most recent 4 polls in Quebec, the NDP is now projected to win Pontiac.
It does not make any sense at all, with the Liberals at last place in Quebec - to recommend them as the preferred strategic vote against the Conservatives.
The NDP is projected to win by 13700 to 12200 over the Conservatives. However, the Liberals could play spoiler here.
It is simply unrealistic to expect given the trajectory of this election that the Liberals stand any chance of pulling this off.
Hi Gretchen, I've been thinking hard about the strategic vote since the NDP started polling strongly in Quebec. I've always voted Green or NDP in fact, I believe that I voted for you twice. I started out in this campaign feeling strongly about voting strategically for Cindy however, the polls have thrown me off. I understand what you're saying about the riding, however is it possible that things have changed ie demographics, attitudes, influence of the internet etc.? I know that the Pontiac is different from other ridings and that there are solid bases for the Conservatives and Liberals but is it possible that the flexible voters are getting caught up in the NDP surge?
I was thinking how it might be possible that the numbers in our riding could play out for the NDP if the polls were actually based in reality. Just bear with me a moment.
The following are the percentage results from last election and how they could shift to create an NDP victory:
Conservative 33% - 5 = 28%
Liberal 24% -1 = 23%
Bloq 22% - 5 = 17%
NDP 15% +14= 29%
Green 5% - 3= 2
In this scenario, the Conservatives would lose support to the Liberals while the progressive end of the Liberal vote would go to the NDP pretty much equalling out those gains. The Bloq and Green losses would go to the NDP.
I'm not saying that this is happening but it could be happening. Who's to say that the Bloq, Green and progressive Liberal voters in our riding aren't getting caught up in Layton's growing popularity in Quebec?
Just some thoughts.
Who's to say? I am saying it. That's who. People in Pontiac do not get "caught up" in anything that happens in Quebec. They identify with Ontario. NDP'ers always entangled in the idealistic notion that maybe people have finally realized that the NDP represents them, what they want, and is the best option for Canada. This is how we roll; we are believers. ... Reality is something else however.
With the smart voters wanting to vote NDP and all going into this deep analysis mode because they want to come up with some sort of rationale to justify voting NDP rather than just doing it.. It really doesn't matter why people will vote NDP and split the anti-Cannon vote with the Liberals. Whatever the reason is, Cannon will win. Done. I read two stories today saying that much of the hoo ha about the so-called NDP "surge" is media manipulation through Conservative channels designed to split the anti-Conservative vote, I don't see how any sort of strategic voting is going to work. The NDP is not going to surge in the Pontiac. And the strategic voters all want to vote NDP anyway, so this just gives them a justification. Wishful thinking will not make it so. I'm very sorry, but I have done what I can and I have failed. Cannon will win and it's hopeless. Oh well. I tried. And I do get to Pair Vote for my friend who is running for the Greens over near Perth while I vote for Cindy. So I can be happy about that.
I'm taking away my Conservative support due to their regrettable stance on C-501. They are the only party to oppose much needed reform to Canada's bankruptcy laws, and I can't vote for people who have no qualms giving away the pension fund I worked so hard for to the executives who bankrupted my former employer and sent me to the unemployment line. Therefore, the only cannon I'm interested in is the one that will fire the conservatives out of Pontiac.
So, in researching my strategic options in Pontiac, I am coming across much (dis)information and trying not to get caught up in this NDP wave, so here I am. I also find it impossible to believe the NDP has a chance of winning Pontiac, or even coming in second. I think this current wave of "NDP love-in" is more of a reactionary blip, and that people will come to their senses once they are at the ballot box. It's not just the party, but the candidates, and I have no idea what rocks the NDP are finding theirs under. For example, the NDP candidate for Maskinonge, Quebec works full-time in an Ottawa bar and is currently on vacation in Las Vegas. Ours is a former Communist Party candidate. You get the idea.
So, like many here, I will now vote for whoever can unseat the conservatives, and vacillating between NDP and Liberals. Like many, I moved away from the liberals after Adscam and Abotech, but I must admit Duncan MacMillan seems to have the right profile for the job. Despite my annoyance of the Conservatives favoring big business interests over working Canadians, I just can't bring myself to swing so far left as to vote for a communist, not in this recession, buddy. I think the Liberals are the best chance for Pontiac, but we need to get the message and the vote out, and we will need the (reluctant) support of the NDP and Bloc vote. In this case, the inexperience and leanings of the Bloc and NDP candidates will work to the Liberals' advantage. They need to capitalize on Duncan MacMillan's profile to achieve this.
Hey Patrick - it was a great turn-out at the meeting last night - by the voters, if not the candidates. I agree with you that Cindy was very impressive, last night, and I kept thinking that it would've been perfect if she'd been representing the NDP. Everyone seems to appreciate that she has a lot of integrity. However, Mathieu is showing himself as more of a serious candidate than I'd originally given him credit for, so I'm still thinking about voting NDP. Project Democracy has just announced that they've invested in some Pontiac-specific polling, and the results will be out tomorrow, so that may give us more concrete info to go on:
"Given local considerations that could potentially impact the race in this riding, we have invested (with your generous financial support) in local polling results which we will receive on Friday. We will post and share this data publicly, at which point we will clarify our recommendation on who is best positioned to defeat the Conservative candidate."
Very interesting election!
Alexia - I agree...the election has become more interesting. IT was ho hum at the start. I too I was pleased with the turnout last night and do agree with you on Mat - and really respect Cindy and think she would be a great mayor. I can add, having known him for the past five years, he is one of the most dedicated respectful people I have had the privledge to know - and I know many around here have seen him as an "unknown" - he is up for the job and getting lot of attention in other parts of the riding.
Nanos poll for yesterday has the NDP up to 42.5% in Quebec!!
Le Droit is reporting the misleading "predictions" from 308. It's pretty sad when consulting some un-verified website passes as actual journalism without verification:
"Alors qu'ils croyaient pouvoir résister facilement à cette vague il y a quelques jours seulement, voire en tirer profit, les stratèges conservateurs évoquent maintenant en privé la possibilité de voir Lawrence Cannon mordre la poussière aux mains du candidat du NPD Mathieu Ravignat, selon des informations obtenues par La Presse hier.
Le site ThreeHundredEight.com prévoit aussi une défaite du ministre Cannon dans sa circonscription lundi. Selon le site, le NPD obtiendrait 30,9 % des voix contre 27,8 % à M. Cannon et 18,2 % au Parti libéral."
I too was at the debate yesterday.
I found Cincy to be passionate about her Pontiac but lacking a broader perspective of the urban parts of the riding and of national issues. She would make a great Mayor!
On the other hand I was very impressed by Mathieu's mastery of the local and national issues.
He appears to be a very solid person and I am convinced that he could play a significant role as an NDP member of parliament.
As far as predictions go, it seems that the Orange wave is getting bigger everywhere.
The challenge is to make sure that it translates into votes on Monday. I am using Facebook to spread the word and get the vote out.
Pierre - I think we spoke last night - I asked the question on Public Servant wage caps. I am pleased you were impressed by Mat and, though I too must remain cautiously optimistic, there does seem to be somehing happening.
I'll get this right yet! Please be patient as I figure out how to send my post to just the Pontiac group.
I'd like to add my relatively less well-grounded support to Gretchen's points...I too have a residence in Pontiac, and have over the years 'studied' the political environment. It is a pretty traditional 'rural' riding notwithstanding the few small towns that make their living as service centres to the primary agriculture and forest sectors.
It used to be that almost any liberal could be elected there -- until some internal liberal 'dirty pool' (remember the 2004 Paul Martin putsch) ousted the competent sitting MP and he was replaced by the Maniwaki liberal candidate (who then lost badly when Cannon stepped into the resulting vaccuum and was first elected). Recently Cindy had to fight off a parachute candidate from Iggy's team in order to continue as the liberal candidate.
She's no match one-to-one for Cannon, but it is really a battle of "on the ground" organizations -- of which there are only two: Cannon's Conservative-Reform-Alliance Party (CRAP) coalition; and the liberals. No other party can match these two for signing, canvassing, $$ for adverts flyers and mailings, and especially for getting their 'needy' voters out to the polling stations on the day.
So with all due respect to the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Green Party of Canada (GPC) candidates and organizations, they just don't have the horses for this heavy hitch pull. (Regarding their policies, programs and principles, I'd rather vote for either of these latter two, and would do so if the outcome weren't so critical...heck, I'd even vote for the Bloq if I thought that would remove the incumbent.)
My worst fear is that with vote splitting, the CRAP will again take this riding -- and as I've said several times -- Pontiac will once again be "cannon-fodder" should that re-occur.
But, if in my wildest dreams, the orange or green win, then I'll help Gretchen out and buy the 2nd round!
I beg to differ about the make up of the riding being rural.
Cantley, Chelsea, Masson Angers, Buckingham and l'Ange Gardien represent about half of the population of the riding. And the residents are not really "rural". They like to live in the "country" but many work in the "city".
In fact, many of them are francophone that find it very hard to relate to the "rural" conservative mentality that is found in the Western parts of the ridding. and, they will vote with their heart to put an end to the Harper regime.
I suggest that you and others do the same: listen to your heart!