Long gun registry
This thread contains links to a number of different articles about the long gun registry. The most recent content is at the bottom.
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Adam Radwanski comments on Don Martin's (National Post) analysis that Harper (via Garry Breitkruez) is undermining the gun registry debate as an election strategy to win a dozen opposition held seats to get his (phony) majority government. Catch 22 adds some riding analysis that supports Radwanski's contention. Second reading: Cash for guns
"But my one quibble is that I doubt Stephen Harper's strategists are under any illusion the gun registry will somehow deliver them a majority. If it hasn't yet, it's hard to imagine it ever will. Where it does come in handy, so far as I know, is with fundraising. "
Looking at the 12 NDP ridings in question, we would agree with Radwanski's assertion that there are not enough winnable ridings for the Cons to propel them into complete and total power.
A quick look* at these 12 NDP seats shows that:
1) The Liberals came 2nd in 7 of them in 2008.
Timmins James Bay (Angus) - The Cons have not come second, let alone first, in at least the last 5 elections.
Sudbury (Thibeault) - The Cons have run 3rd place since at least 1963. It was a tight 3-way race in 2008 however.
Nickel Belt (Gravelle) - The Cons only received 21% of the vote in '08.
Algoma (Hughes) - The Cons ran a distant third in the '08.
Thunder Bay - Rainy River - (Rafferty) - Formerly held by the Libs, the Cons have run in 3rd place the last 3 elections.
Churchill - (Ashton) - The Cons have not held this seat since 1974 and have not even run in 2nd place since 1984.
Thunder Bay - Superior North (Hyer) - Either the NDP or Libs have held this riding since 1979. The Alliance placed 2nd in 2000 and Reform placed 2nd in '93.
Conclusion It's doubtful that the cons can take any of these 7 ridings with the possible exception of Sudbury.
2) The Conservatives ran second in 5 of them
Welland (Allen) - This was a squeaker 3-way split in '08 which the Cons may be able to capitalize on. The Cons held the riding in 1984 but had not had the seat 1935.
Sackville- Eastern Shore (Stoffer) - The NDP have comfortably held this riding since at least 1997. Stoffer received 61% of the vote in '08 and 53% in '06. The Cons often run 3rd but managed a 2nd place finish in '08.
Western Arctic (Bevington) - A close race in '08. Cons have not held the riding since '84 (and lost it in '88).
Elmwood - Transcona (Maloway) - While close in '08 (5% margin), this is generally an NDP stronghold (Bill Blaikie's former riding).
Skeena - Bulkley Valley (Cullen) - Held by the NDP after at least the last 3 elections, Cullen won with a 13% margin in '08.
Conclusion (updated): The Cons are targeting the 6 NDP ridings where the MP switched their vote. Only Allen is vulnerable. Thibeault took a risk but the Cons taking Sudbury? Don't see it. The other four should be safe, particularly because there are much bigger issues that people care about which they're not prepared to sacrifice in order to support Stephen Harper.
Overall conclusion: If this is Harper's sole strategy for winning a majority, it's doubtful that it will succeed. One would also need to look at the 9 Liberal ridings where the MPs are switching their votes. We would agree with Radwanski that Harper can successfully use the issue to raise money from ridings across the country.
The data also shows that, contrary to many people's assertions, it is unlikely that the NDP's motivation for supporting a free vote is because they fear losing these 12 seats.
* There was some redistribution so the riding names have not always been as listed above.
Views: 8
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Catch 22 on -
It's not hard to imagine the Cons selectively campaigning on this issue. Could put some of their urban candidates in a bind.
Gun registry will be scrapped someday: PM
"Speaking to reporters on Friday in Thunder Bay, Ont., Harper said opposition to the registry has been growing for years, and next week's vote on Tory MP Candice Hoeppner's bill will be "the closest we have been" to abolishing it.
"Opposition to it has not diminished; it has only increased," he said."
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Permalink Reply by Catch 22 on
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Rural, pro-registry NDP MP has invite for ‘Ottawa elitist’ John Baird
Matt Gurney of the National Post Editorial Board audio interview with Charlie Angus, NDP MP for Timmins-James Bay.
"He defended his choice of changing his mind on the registry even though many gun owners feel that it unfairly lumps them in with brutal killers like Marc Lepine and Kimveer Gil, and had some sharp words for John Baird, someone Mr. Angus feels might benefit from a visit to the riding of someone opposed to the registry who certainly is no downtown Toronto elitist."
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Permalink Reply by Catch 22 on
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From Jim Rankin at the Toronto Star.
Heat is on in the heart of long-gun country
"So, as the leaves up here turn red and orange, there is, in addition to the fate of the registry, the question as to whether the gun issue is big enough to turn these NDP orange ridings Tory blue in the next federal election.
In the absence of local polling, it is difficult to gauge. What follows are some scenes and voices from this past week from the Sudbury region — the ground zero, if you will, of the fate of the gun registry."
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Permalink Reply by Catch 22 on
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Pundit's guide has a very detailed look at how the gun registry may impact the re-election chances of a number of MPs including:
- NDP & Liberal vote switchers
- urban Conservatives
Whip-lash: Electoral Consequences and the Long Gun Registry
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Permalink Reply by Catch 22 on
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Impolitical on the gun registry battle.
Conservative priorities, front and center
"The spin is really remarkable, irrespective of what happens, the Conservatives seem to win. If they lose the vote on Wednesday, they get to keep the issue alive as a fundraiser...
They get to use it as a wedge in those Liberal and NDP ridings...
What must Canadians be thinking as they watched the news coverage focussing on a gun registry battle of all things. Out of touch? Are these people out to lunch? Probably. The Harper Conservatives may have thought this was a good one to push, to feed the base and all, yet it's taken on more life than they likely anticipated..."
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