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Aaron Nordquist is now a member of Catch 22 Harper Conservatives Dec 23, 2011
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Kristy Ambrose is now a member of Catch 22 Harper Conservatives Dec 15, 2011
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Catch 22 replied to Toby Stewart's discussion 'A Brew at the Black Sheep?' in the group Pontiac
OK - Sounds like a plan. Not sure if there's an auto-notify for new threads. I would be coming from Toronto but don't have any "real" plans to come to the NCR in the next few months. Gary
Dec 1, 2011
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Toby Stewart replied to Toby Stewart's discussion 'A Brew at the Black Sheep?' in the group Pontiac
OK it worked this way.
Dec 1, 2011
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Toby Stewart replied to Toby Stewart's discussion 'A Brew at the Black Sheep?' in the group Pontiac
Thanks Gary -- let's keep that bcc option in abeyance until we see if any of the others do reply... (unless I'm mis-remembering, there was an auto-notify email sent out to everyone who was part of the discussion thread... but if I'm…
Dec 1, 2011
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Catch 22 replied to Toby Stewart's discussion 'A Brew at the Black Sheep?' in the group Pontiac
Toby, Having participated in (or been at the receiving end of) the Pontiac debate, I would very much like to join you. Alas, I'm too far away but if I'm in Ottawa around the time, I'll be there. I don't think there's a lot…
Dec 1, 2011
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A Brew at the Black Sheep?

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Hi Folks -- Bonjour encore; It seems so long ago now -- the May election -- where almost 80% of the eligible voters consciously acted to NOT VOTE for the Harper-crits...(yes they got 40% of the vote, but 40% of 50% who voted equals only 20% of the eligible total -- the non-voters also made their own decisions to not vote to support them!) And yet still under our supposed democratic system, the Conservative Reform Alliance Party (CRAP) "won" a majority government (financed to the hilt by their…See More
Toby Stewart added a discussion to the group Pontiac Nov 30, 2011
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user39 is now a member of Catch 22 Harper Conservatives Nov 7, 2011
 
See our initial look at the results below. We will be issuing an editorial on the weekend. A detailed report will be pulled together over the next few weeks. If you have any comments on the campaign, please email them to catch22campaign AT gmail DOT com.

Riding level results for the 2011 election are available at Elections Canada. 

The Catch 22 Campaign is registered as a Third Party with Elections Canada and is independent of all political parties, campaigns and candidates.

Key Info: Target Ridings; Campaign FAQ; Tips for new members

Join the Group and volunteer in your target riding!

Catch 22's first look at the election...

This is a high level summary of campaign results in ridings identified by the Catch 22 campaign. Over the coming weekend, we'll publish an editorial. Then in a few weeks we'll put out a more detailed look at our campaign - strengths and weaknesses, what worked and what didn't etc. Once that is done, the campaign will be wrapped up.

Obviously, we did not get the overall results we were looking for. With less than a 2% increase in the popular vote, Harper was successful at boosting his seat count by 25 and forming a "majority" with the support of less than 40% of voters.

Here are a few stats from our campaign.

Number of ridings on Catch 22 list - 60

Number of first place finishes for opposition in C22 identified ridings - 15 (including 2 "too close to call ridings" won by opposition)

  • Number of Conservatives defeated from Catch 22 list - 4 (Surrey North, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Beauport-Limiloi, Pontiac)
  • Number of opposition ridings successfully defended - 11 (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Welland, Malpeque, Burnaby-Douglas, New Westminister-Coquitlam, Edmonton-Strathcona, London Fanshawe, Western Arctic, Guelph, Kingston and the Islands, Random-Burin-St. Georges)

Number of second place finishes - 34

Number of third place finishes for Catch 22 candidates - 8 (Huron Bruce, Miramichi, Fredericton, Edmonton Centre, Brant, St. John, Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup)

Number of "too close to call" ridings won by the Conservatives - 3 (Essex, Kenora, Nunavut)

Number of ridings where recommendations were flat out wrong - 2 (Newton North Delta where the C22 recommended Liberal incumbent (31.5) was defeated by the NDP (33.4%) with Con right behind (31.3%). Both the Cons and NDP were within 10% of the Lib incumbent in 2008. Catch 22 should have stayed out of this one. In Montmagny-L'Islet— Kamouraska—Rivière-du Loup - the NDP beat the the Con by just 9 votes. We recommended the Bloc candidate to defeat the Con. after the Cons took it from the Bloc in a 2009 by-election. More on Quebec in the detailed report.

Sincerely

Catch 22 team

April 30, 2011

Strategic voting urgently needed to stop NDP, Liberal vote split

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are still within reach of winning a majority government. Catch 22's research shows that the most dangerous factor that could help the Conservatives is the possible collapse of the Liberal vote in several key ridings.

While the New Democrats may clinch second place in the election, a continuation in the rise of NDP popularity in key ridings, that the Liberals have been expected to win, would open the door for the Conservatives to come up the middle and take enough seats to win a slim majority in Parliament.

Catch 22 strategist Nick Fillmore says that “voters must keep their eye on the prize on Monday and not lose sight of doing what it takes to make sure that Harper does not win a majority. It’s crucial that the Liberal vote hold in many ridings.”

Harper’s Conservatives moved up in the polls again and are within range of a majority government. The Conservatives were standing at 38 per cent in the polls as of today, reports the Nanos polling firm. In 1997, Jean Chretien and the Liberals won a majority government with only 37 per cent of the popular vote.

Nanos had the NDP well back of the Tories at 29.6 per cent and the Liberals at 23.3 per cent.

“Catch 22 does not favor any one party over another,” said Catch 22 coordinator Gary Shaul. “We are heartened to see that the NDP will likely defeat most, if not all of the Conservatives in the seventeen ridings we’ve identified as a strategic vote for the NDP. But it’s very clear that to stop a Harper majority, voters need to go out and support the Liberals in those ridings where Catch 22 is recommending the Liberals have the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.

“In all of these recommended ridings, the NDP has very little chance of catching the Conservative candidates, but NDP votes in these ridings on Monday could be a big spoiler.”

Political scientist Alvin Finkel has a warning: “While I am as excited as anyone about the NDP surge, it is clear from the polls that the chances of Canadians electing a majority of Harper Conservatives with about 38 percent of the vote remains high.”

“If Harper has a majority, it won't matter much which party forms the official opposition. We'll see a rightward shift in Canadian federal policy of the kind that Britain experienced under Margaret Thatcher and from which it has never recovered, regardless of which party has formed government,” said Finkel, from the Centre for State and Legal Studies at Athabaska University in Alberta.

Catch 22 is recommending that voters support Liberal candidates in 35 ridings. Please see our list of recommended ridings below.

CATCH 22 TARGET RIDINGS FOR STRATEGIC VOTING

Below you will find our voting recommendations for 30+ vulnerable Conservative seats (Table 1) and about 20 vulnerable opposition-held seats (Table 2). There are four ridings that are too close to call at this time.

Catch 22 is registered with Elections Canada as a Third Party and is raising funds for advertising for the final two weeks of the campaign. Please make a donation, volunteer and support Catch 22 in these vital ridings.

Table 1

Conservative-held Riding
Catch 22 Recommends
Current MP Profile




British Columbia


Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo
Michael Crawford (NDP)
Cathy McLeod Profile
North Vancouver
Taleeb Noormohamed (Lib)
Andrew Saxton Profile
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission Craig Speirs (NDP)
Randy Kamp
Profile
Saanich—Gulf Islands Elizabeth May (Green)
Gary Lunn
Profile
Surrey North Jasbir Sandhu (NDP)
Dona Cadman Profile
Vancouver Island North Ronna-Rae Leonard (NDP) John Duncan
Profile




Alberta


Edmonton Centre
Mary MacDonald (Lib)
Laurie Hawn (CPC)





Prairies


Palliser (SK) Noah Evanchuk (NDP)
Roy Boughen Profile
Saint Boniface (MB) Raymond Simard (Lib)
Shelley Glover Profile
Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar (SK)
Nettie Wiebe (NDP)
Kelly Block Profile




Ontario


Brant Lloyd St. Amand (Lib)
Phil McColeman Profile
Essex Too close to call - check back Jeff Watson
Profile
Haldimand—Norfolk Bob Speller (Lib)
Diane Finley
Profile
Huron—Bruce Charlie Bagnato (Lib)
Benjamin Lobb
Profile
Kenora Too close to call - check back Greg Rickford
Profile
Kitchener—Waterloo Andrew Telegdi (Lib)
Peter Braid
Profile
Kitchener Centre Karen Redman (Lib)
Stephen Woodworth
Profile
London West Doug Ferguson (Lib)
Ed Holder Profile
Mississauga—Erindale Omar Alghabra (Lib)
Bob Dechert Profile
Oak Ridges—Markham
Lui Temelkovski (Lib)
Paul Calandra Profile
Oakville Max Khan (Lib)
Terence Young Profile
Oshawa Chris Buckley (NDP)
Collin Carrie Profile
Ottawa—Orléans David Bertschi (Lib)
Royal Galipeau
Profile
Ottawa West—Nepean Anita Vandenbeld (Lib)
John Baird Profile
Simcoe-Grey Alex Smardenka (Lib)
Helena Guergis Profile
Thornhill Karen Mock (Lib)
Peter Kent Profile
Vaughan Mario Ferri (Lib)
Julian Fantino
Profile




Québec


Beauport—Limoilou Too close to call
Sylvie Boucher
Profile
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska
—Rivière-du-Loup
Nathalie Arsenault  (BQ)
Bernard Généreux Profile
Pontiac Too close to call
Lawrence Cannon
Profile
Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean Claude Pilote (BQ)
Denis Lebel Profile




Atlantic Canada



Egmont (PE) Guy Gallant (Lib) Gail Shea Profile
Fredericton (NB) Randy McKeen (Lib)
Keith Ashfield
Profile
Miramichi (NB) Keith Vickers (Lib)
Tilly O'Neill-Gordon Profile
Saint John (NB) Stephen Chase (Lib)
Rodney Weston Profile
South Shore—St. Margaret's (NS)
Gordon Earle (NDP)
Gerald Keddy Profile
West Nova (NS) Robert Thibault (Lib)
Greg Kerr Profile




Northern Canada



Nunavut Too close to call - check back
Leona Aglukkaq
Profile

 

 

Table 2

Opposition-held Riding Catch 22 Recommends
Current MP



British Columbia


Burnaby—Douglas
Kennedy Stewart (NDP)
Bill Siksay (retired)
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca
Randall Garrison (NDP) Keith Martin (retired)
New Westminster—Coquitlam
Fin Donnelly (NDP)
Fin Donnelly (NDP)
Newton—North Delta
Sukh Dhaliwal (Lib)
Sukh Dhaliwal (Lib)
Vancouver South
Ujjal Dosanjh (Lib)
Ujjal Dosanjh (Lib)



Alberta

Edmonton-Strathcona Linda Duncan (NDP)
Linda Duncan (NDP)



Prairies

Elmwood—Transcona (MB)
Jim Maloway (NDP)
Jim Maloway (NDP)



Ontario

Ajax—Pickering
Mark Holland (Lib)
Mark Holland (Lib)
Brampton—Springdale
Ruby Dhalla (Lib)
Ruby Dhalla (Lib)
Brampton West
Andrew Kania (Lib)
Andrew Kania (Lib)
Don Valley West
Rob Oliphant (Lib)
Rob Oliphant (Lib)
Eglinton—Lawrence
Joseph Volpe (Lib)
Joseph Volpe (Lib)
Guelph
Frank Valeriote (Lib)
Frank Valeriote (Lib)
Kingston and the Islands
Ted Hsu (Lib) Peter Milliken (Lib)
London—Fanshawe
Irene Mathyssen (NDP)
Irene Mathyssen (NDP)
Mississauga South
Paul Szabo (Lib)
Paul Szabo (Lib)
Sault Ste. Marie
Tony Martin (NDP)
Tony Martin (NDP)
Welland
Malcolm Allen (NDP)
Malcolm Allen (NDP)
York Centre
Ken Dryden (Lib)
Ken Dryden (Lib)



Atlantic Canada


Malpeque (PE)
Wayne Easter (Lib)
Wayne Easter (Lib)
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe (NB)
Brian Murphy (Lib)
Brian Murphy (Lib)
Random—Burin—St. George's (NL) Judy Foote (Lib)
Judy Foote (Lib)



Northern Canada


Western Arctic (NT)
Dennis Bevington (NDP)
Dennis Bevington (NDP)
 
 
 

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