Riding level results for the 2011 election are available at Elections Canada. 

The Catch 22 Campaign is registered as a Third Party with Elections Canada and is independent of all political parties, campaigns and candidates.

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Catch 22's first look at the election...

This is a high level summary of campaign results in ridings identified by the Catch 22 campaign. Over the coming weekend, we'll publish an editorial. Then in a few weeks we'll put out a more detailed look at our campaign - strengths and weaknesses, what worked and what didn't etc. Once that is done, the campaign will be wrapped up.

Obviously, we did not get the overall results we were looking for. With less than a 2% increase in the popular vote, Harper was successful at boosting his seat count by 25 and forming a "majority" with the support of less than 40% of voters.

Here are a few stats from our campaign.

Number of ridings on Catch 22 list - 60

Number of first place finishes for opposition in C22 identified ridings - 15 (including 2 "too close to call ridings" won by opposition)

• Number of Conservatives defeated from Catch 22 list - 4 (Surrey North, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Beauport-Limiloi, Pontiac)
• Number of opposition ridings successfully defended - 11 (Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Welland, Malpeque, Burnaby-Douglas, New Westminister-Coquitlam, Edmonton-Strathcona, London Fanshawe, Western Arctic, Guelph, Kingston and the Islands, Random-Burin-St. Georges)

Number of second place finishes - 34

Number of third place finishes for Catch 22 candidates - 8 (Huron Bruce, Miramichi, Fredericton, Edmonton Centre, Brant, St. John, Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup)

Number of "too close to call" ridings won by the Conservatives - 3 (Essex, Kenora, Nunavut)

Number of ridings where recommendations were flat out wrong - 2 (Newton North Delta where the C22 recommended Liberal incumbent (31.5) was defeated by the NDP (33.4%) with Con right behind (31.3%). Both the Cons and NDP were within 10% of the Lib incumbent in 2008. Catch 22 should have stayed out of this one. In Montmagny-L'Islet— Kamouraska—Rivière-du Loup - the NDP beat the the Con by just 9 votes. We recommended the Bloc candidate to defeat the Con. after the Cons took it from the Bloc in a 2009 by-election. More on Quebec in the detailed report.

Sincerely

April 30, 2011

Strategic voting urgently needed to stop NDP, Liberal vote split

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are still within reach of winning a majority government. Catch 22's research shows that the most dangerous factor that could help the Conservatives is the possible collapse of the Liberal vote in several key ridings.

While the New Democrats may clinch second place in the election, a continuation in the rise of NDP popularity in key ridings, that the Liberals have been expected to win, would open the door for the Conservatives to come up the middle and take enough seats to win a slim majority in Parliament.

Catch 22 strategist Nick Fillmore says that “voters must keep their eye on the prize on Monday and not lose sight of doing what it takes to make sure that Harper does not win a majority. It’s crucial that the Liberal vote hold in many ridings.”

Harper’s Conservatives moved up in the polls again and are within range of a majority government. The Conservatives were standing at 38 per cent in the polls as of today, reports the Nanos polling firm. In 1997, Jean Chretien and the Liberals won a majority government with only 37 per cent of the popular vote.

Nanos had the NDP well back of the Tories at 29.6 per cent and the Liberals at 23.3 per cent.

“Catch 22 does not favor any one party over another,” said Catch 22 coordinator Gary Shaul. “We are heartened to see that the NDP will likely defeat most, if not all of the Conservatives in the seventeen ridings we’ve identified as a strategic vote for the NDP. But it’s very clear that to stop a Harper majority, voters need to go out and support the Liberals in those ridings where Catch 22 is recommending the Liberals have the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.

“In all of these recommended ridings, the NDP has very little chance of catching the Conservative candidates, but NDP votes in these ridings on Monday could be a big spoiler.”

Political scientist Alvin Finkel has a warning: “While I am as excited as anyone about the NDP surge, it is clear from the polls that the chances of Canadians electing a majority of Harper Conservatives with about 38 percent of the vote remains high.”

“If Harper has a majority, it won't matter much which party forms the official opposition. We'll see a rightward shift in Canadian federal policy of the kind that Britain experienced under Margaret Thatcher and from which it has never recovered, regardless of which party has formed government,” said Finkel, from the Centre for State and Legal Studies at Athabaska University in Alberta.

Catch 22 is recommending that voters support Liberal candidates in 35 ridings. Please see our list of recommended ridings below.